Brunswick Population and Demographic Analysis
This chapter summarizes past population and demographic changes, projects future population growth and demographic trends, and assesses the impacts these changes could have on Brunswick’s recreation and open space resources.
PART A. POPULATION CHANGE
The United States Census divides population into two segments—household population and group quarters population. Brunswick’s group quarters population is unusually large; it includes students living on campus at Bowdoin College, military personnel living in barracks at the Brunswick Naval Air Station, nursing home residents, and others. All residents not living in group quarters are considered part of the household population. Despite Brunswick’s large group quarters population, its household population accounts for more than 90 % of the town’s residents.
1. Population Growth, 1940 - 1990
A half-century of growth transformed Brunswick from a town of 8,658 in 1940 to one of 20,909 in 1990 (Figure A). In the 1950s, the town grew from 11,000 to 16,000 (45% increase) when the onset of the Cold War prompted the reopening of the Brunswick Naval Air Station (BNAS).[1] Growth moderated in the 1960s and 1970s, but rebounded in the 1980s as a real estate boom fueled an increase from 17,366 year round residents in 1980 to 20,909 in 1990 (20%).
Brunswick’s household population is more than 90% of the town’s total population and accounted for the majority of the population change between 1970 and 1990 (Table A). Within this time frame, the household population increased from 14,536 to 19,047 (or 31%). Most of this growth occurred during the real estate boom of the 1980s, when the household population grew by more than 3,500 residents (23%).
Figure A
Brunswick Population Change 1940 - 2020
Source: US Census; Planning Decisions, Inc.
Table A
Components of Population Growth, 1970 – 1990
|
|
1970 |
Change 70 – 80 |
1980 |
Change 80 – 90 |
1990 |
||
|
# |
% |
# |
% |
||||
|
Household pop. |
14,536 |
976 |
6.7% |
15,512 |
3,535 |
22.8% |
19,047 |
|
Group quarters pop. |
1,659 |
195 |
11.8% |
1,854 |
8 |
0.4% |
1,862 |
|
Total pop. |
16,195 |
1,171 |
7.2% |
17,366 |
3,543 |
20.4% |
20,909 |
Source: US Census
Between 1970 and 1990, the group quarters population increased from 1,659 to 1,862 (12%) (Table A). Most of this growth occurred in the 1970s when the group quarters population increased to 1,854 residents (12%). None of the group quarters population growth between 1970 and 1990 occurred at BNAS (724 group quarter residents in both Census reports). Students living on campus at Bowdoin College and counted as Brunswick residents increased from 813 to 933[2].
2. Household Population, 1990 - 2000
According to the US Census, the household population reached 19,107 by 2000, an increase of two percent in ten years (Table C). New housing units, a stable occupancy rate, and a significant decrease in the household size combine to account for this household growth.
a. Housing Unit Change
Brunswick had a 523 unit net increase in housing units between 1990 and 2000 to total 8,720. Planning Decisions estimates that 528 new housing units were constructed in Brunswick and 5 housing units were removed and not reconstructed (demolition, fire, etc). According to the US Census, 220 of the 8,720 housing units were for seasonal use.[3]
Housing development grew steadily throughout the 1990s as regional economic conditions and the interest rate environment improved (Figure B). Single family houses accounted for an estimated net increase of 356 units and mobile homes/others accounted for 104 units (Table B). More than one-half of the 63 new duplexes or multi-family units were added at the Thornton Oaks retirement community on Baribeau Drive.
Table B
Housing Unit Growth by Type, 1980 - 2000
|
|
1980Units |
% change 1980 – 1990 |
1990 Units |
% change 1990 – 2000 |
2000 Units (est.) |
|
Single family |
3,806 |
20.4% |
4,585 |
7.8% |
4,941 |
|
Two units or more |
1,579 |
49.1% |
2,355 |
2.7% |
2,418 |
|
Mobile/other |
698 |
80.1% |
1,257 |
8.3% |
1,361 |
|
Total |
6,241 |
31.3% |
8,197 |
6.4% |
8,720 |
Source: US Census; Planning Decisions, Inc; Town Staff
Figure B
New Housing Units by Year, 1990 - 1999
 |
Source: Town Staff, Planning Decisions, Inc.
Note: the decennial Census is taken on April 1990 and April 2000. Planning Decisions estimates for new units extend from January 1990 through December 1999.
b. Occupancy Rate Change
The occupancy rate did not change between 1990 and 2000; it remained at 96%. The combination of the strong economy, tight housing market, and more new homeowner units than rental units (homeowner units have higher occupancy rates) have been upward influences on Brunswick’s occupancy rate. Mitigating these upward influences are the timing of the Census count (April 1st excludes the growing “snowbird” population) and an aging housing stock (older units are more likely to be functionally obsolete, yet still counted by the Census).
c. Household Size Change
Tempering the upward influence of new housing units is the trend towards smaller household sizes. Nationwide, this trend is explained by a tendency towards smaller families in the baby boom generation, the increased longevity and independence of seniors living alone, and increased divorce rates.
These national trends are compounded by local trends. Brunswick’s growing role as a senior-living center will continue to push down household sizes as more retirees and “empty-nesters” settle in town. High real estate values are a barrier for younger families looking to live in the region. In addition, the State’s strong economy tends to reduce the number of extended families living together. All of these trends exert downward pressure on the town’s average household size.
In 1960, Brunswick averaged 3.30 persons per housing unit (Figure C). By 2000, this number had fallen to 2.34, and by 2020 this number is projected to reach 2.22 persons per housing unit.
Figure C
Persons Per Household, 1960 - 2020
Source: US Census; Planning Decisions, Inc
Table C describes the interrelationship of new housing units, occupancy rates, and a decreasing household size. The 486 net increase in year-round housing units increased the town’s year-round housing stock to 8,500. With an occupancy rate of 96%, the number of households was 8,447. Household sizes have decreased to 2.34 persons per housing unit, which results in a household population of 19,107.
Table C
Household Population, 2000
|
1990 total housing units |
8,197 |
|
(minus) 1990 seasonal units |
183 |
|
(equals) 1990 year-round units |
8,014 |
|
(plus) new year-round units, 1990 – 2000 |
486 |
|
(equals) 2000 year round units |
8,500 |
|
(multiplied by) estimated occupancy factor |
0.96 |
|
(equals) 2000 estimated households |
8,150 |
|
(multiplied by) 2001 estimated household size |
2.34 |
|
(equals) 2000 household population |
19,107 |
Source: US Census; Planning Decisions, Inc.
3. Group Quarters Population, 1990 - 2000
The group quarters population is estimated to have increased from 1,862 in 1990 to 2,065 in 2000. This represents an increase of 11%, or 203 residents. Underlying this number is a dramatic shift from military personnel living in barracks to retirees living in assisted living and college students living in dormitories. Military personnel living in group quarters has decreased from 724 in 1990 to 361[4] in 2000. Most of this occurred as the military downsized its personnel after the end of the Cold War. Offsetting this decrease is an increasing number of Bowdoin College students living on campus (from 933 in 1990 to 1,380 in 2000). Other group quarters populations are estimated to have increased dramatically from 196 residents in 1990 to 324 residents in 2000. Nearly all of this increase comes from the assisted living facility at Thornton Oaks.
7. Geographic Distribution of Growth 1990 - 2000
The geographic distribution of hosing-unit growth varies across town. The town’s rural areas (West Brunswick, Pleasant Hill, Pennellville/Mere Point, New Meadows Shore, and East Brunswick) (Figure D) grew by a total of 381 new housing units (78% of new housing unit growth). East Brunswick alone accounted for more than one-third of all housing unit growth in town. Meanwhile, the urban areas (Downtown, Downtown Fringe, and BNAS/Cook’s Corner) grew by 105 units (22% of the total) (Table D).
Table D
Year-Round Housing Unit Growth, 1990 - 2000
|
|
1990 Housing Units |
New Housing Units |
% Total Growth |
% Relative Growth |
2000 Housing Units |
|
West Brunswick |
269 |
65 |
13.4% |
24.2% |
334 |
|
Pleasant Hill |
291 |
46 |
9.5% |
15.8% |
337 |
|
Pennellville/Mere Point |
743 |
39 |
8.0% |
5.2% |
782 |
|
New Meadows Shore |
254 |
66 |
13.6% |
26.0% |
320 |
|
East Brunswick |
797 |
165 |
34.0% |
20.7% |
962 |
|
BNAS/Cooks Corner |
717 |
-40 |
-8.2% |
-5.6% |
677 |
|
Downtown |
2,939 |
40 |
8.2% |
1.4% |
2979 |
|
Downtown Fringe |
2,004 |
105 |
21.6% |
5.2% |
2109 |
|
Total |
8,014 |
486 |
100.1% |
6.1% |
8500 |
Source: US Census, Planning Decisions, Inc.
Comparing the relative growth between these areas reinforces the demands for new housing in the town’s rural areas. In relative terms, the rural areas grew by 16% while the urban areas grew by 2%.
Figure D
Brunswick Neighborhoods
Source: Planning Decisions, Inc.
The geographic distribution of population growth during the 1990s was more dramatic than the trends in housing unit development. Brunswick’s urban areas lost 5% of their household population (Table E) while rural household populations grew by nearly 13%. The Downtown, BNAS/Cook’s Corner, the Downtown Fringe, and Pennellville/Mere Point neighborhoods lost population. The Downtown lost 298 residents. Meanwhile, East Brunswick added nearly 300 residents, and the New Meadows Shore added 214 residents.
Table E
Household Population Growth by Geography, 1990 - 2000
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
Change 90 – 00 |
||||||
|
|
Hshld |
Hshld Size |
Pop |
Hshld |
Hshld Size |
Pop |
Hshld |
Hshld Pop ∆ |
|
|
|
# |
% |
|||||||
|
West Brunswick |
257 |
2.95 |
759 |
330 |
2.71 |
893 |
73 |
134 |
17.7% |
|
Pleasant Hill |
282 |
2.87 |
808 |
333 |
2.85 |
949 |
51 |
141 |
17.5% |
|
P.ville/Mere Point |
729 |
2.25 |
1,642 |
723 |
2.20 |
1592 |
-6 |
-50 |
-3.0% |
|
New Meadows Shore |
229 |
2.53 |
580 |
302 |
2.63 |
794 |
73 |
214 |
36.9% |
|
East Brunswick |
771 |
2.45 |
1,892 |
897 |
2.41 |
2164 |
126 |
272 |
14.4% |
|
BNAS/Cooks Crnr |
689 |
3.01 |
2,077 |
651 |
2.90 |
1891 |
-38 |
-186 |
-9.0% |
|
Downtown |
2,822 |
2.16 |
6,096 |
2850 |
2.03 |
5798 |
28 |
-298 |
-4.9% |
|
Downtown Fringe |
1,932 |
2.69 |
5,193 |
2064 |
2.44 |
5026 |
132 |
-167 |
-3.2% |
|
Total |
7,711 |
2.47 |
19,047 |
8150 |
2.34 |
19107 |
439 |
60 |
0.3% |
Source: US Census; Planning Decisions, Inc.
The distribution of growth between 1990 and 2000 suggests two major trends are at work in Brunswick. First, the data suggests that households with children are moving into the town’s rural areas. The average household size in the town’s rural areas was 2.43 persons per household, which is significantly above the urban area’s 2.30 persons per household. Further evidence of this trend is in the age distribution between the rural and urban areas of town. Between 1990 and 2000, the number of Brunswick residents under 18 years of age increased from 4,845 to 4,871 (Table F). The number of residents under 18 in urban areas decreased by 8% while those in rural areas grew by 22%.
Table F
Population Under 18 Years of Age, 1990 – 2000
|
|
1990 |
2000 |
Change: 90 – 00 |
|||
|
# |
% of Hshld Pop |
# |
% of Hshld Pop |
# |
% of Hshld Pop |
|
|
West Brunswick |
222 |
29.2% |
253 |
28.3% |
31 |
14.0% |
|
Pleasant Hill |
218 |
27.0% |
286 |
30.1% |
68 |
31.2% |
|
P.ville / Mere Point |
307 |
18.7% |
298 |
18.7% |
-9 |
-2.9% |
|
New Meadows Shore |
126 |
21.7% |
207 |
26.1% |
81 |
64.3% |
|
East Brunswick |
443 |
23.4% |
561 |
25.9% |
118 |
26.6% |
|
BNAS / Cooks Corner |
759 |
36.5% |
702 |
37.1% |
-57 |
-7.5% |
|
Downtown |
1,295 |
21.2% |
1,199 |
20.7% |
-96 |
-7.4% |
|
Downtown Fringe |
1,475 |
28.4% |
1,365 |
27.2% |
-110 |
-7.5% |
|
Total |
4,845 |
25.4% |
4,871 |
26.0% |
26 |
0.5% |
Source: US Census
The second major trend is Brunswick’s growing role as a senior-living center in Midcoast Maine. The inconsistency between 105 new year-round housing units in the urban areas and 657 fewer household residents is in part explained by a dramatic contraction in the average number of persons per housing unit (from 2.46 in 1990 to 2.30 in 2000). The primary variable driving down the household population is the urban area’s aging population and its growing role as a senior-living center. These numbers do not include an additional 200 seniors living in the main building at the Thornton Oaks retirement community (these residents are considered part of the group quarter population). This role is projected to continue, as elder residents are attracted to the convenience, services, and community in Brunswick’s urban areas.
8. Population Projections, 2000 - 2020
Planning Decisions projects that Brunswick’s population will reach 21,936 by 2010 and 22,755 by 2020 (Figure A, Table G). Except for a projected moderate increase in the student population living in dormitories at Bowdoin College, the majority of this growth is projected to be in the household population in rural areas of town.
a. Household Population Change, 2000 - 2020
An upward influence on household population is the continued addition of new housing units to the town’s housing stock. An average of 60 new housing units per year has been added to the town’s housing stock between 1995 and 2001. This rate is projected to moderate slightly through 2010. Between 2010 and 2020, the growth rate of new housing units is projected to decrease to 45 units per year. This decrease is the result of a projected stagnant population statewide and the increasing attractiveness of communities surrounding Brunswick. These rates of development are projected to net a total of 9,010 housing units in 2010 and 9,551 housing units in 2020 (Table G).
Occupancy rates and average household sizes will put downward pressure on population. The large number of rental units in Brunswick will hold occupancy rates around 96% through 2020. Average household sizes are projected to continue falling to 2.27 by 2010 and to 2.22 by 2020 (Table G), as Brunswick’s growing role as a senior-living center and the aging of the baby boom generation continues to exert downward pressure on household sizes.
Combined, these variables result in household population projections of 19,636 in 2010 (3% increase from 2000) and 20,355 in 2020 (4% increase from 2010).
Table G
Population Projections, 2000 - 2020
|
|
2000 |
2010 (proj.) |
2020 (proj.) |
|
Year Round Housing Units |
8,500 |
9,010 |
9,551 |
|
Occupancy Rate |
0.96 |
0.96 |
0.96 |
|
Households |
8,150 |
8,650 |
9,169 |
|
Persons per Household |
2.34 |
2.27 |
2.22 |
|
Household Population |
19,107 |
19,636 |
20,355 |
|
Group Quarter Population |
2,065 |
2,300 |
2,400 |
|
Total Population |
21,172 |
21,936 |
22,755 |
Source: Planning Decisions, Inc.
b. Group Quarters Population Change, 2000 - 2020
The large number of group quarters residents decreases the accuracy of projections because their numbers depend largely on policy decisions and are independent of established development patterns. National defense considerations or an expansion of the Bowdoin student population could significantly affect this component of Brunswick’s population. This analysis projects that the group quarter population will increase to 2,300 residents by 2010 and will reach 2,400 residents by 2020 (Table G). These projected increases will be driven by an increasing student population at Bowdoin College and more elder-care facilities in Brunswick.
8. Geographic Distribution of Population, 2000 - 2020
Rural areas of town are projected to drive Brunswick’s growth through 2020. Housing unit growth is projected to remain robust—although slightly lower than current levels—and household growth is projected to grow by 6% in each of the next two decades (Table H). Areas that are projected to receive most of Brunswick’s future household growth include West Brunswick, Pleasant Hill, and the New Meadows Shore.[5] These areas both contain large undeveloped parcels that have good environmental conditions for development (soils and slopes). Growth in the New Meadows Shore and East Brunswick will be stronger if the Cooks Corner Master Plan is successful in its attempt to reorient development around pedestrians.
Table H
Projected Household Growth by Geographic Region, 2001 - 2020
|
|
2000 |
Change 2000 – 2010 |
2010 |
Change 2010 – 2020 |
2020 |
||
|
# |
% |
# |
% |
||||
|
West Brunswick |
330 |
89 |
27% |
419 |
103 |
25% |
522 |
|
Pleasant Hill |
333 |
80 |
24% |
413 |
89 |
22% |
502 |
|
P.ville/Mere Point |
723 |
56 |
8% |
779 |
72 |
9% |
851 |
|
N Meadows Shore |
302 |
83 |
27% |
385 |
61 |
16% |
446 |
|
East Brunswick |
897 |
128 |
14% |
||||